• Playoff series win probabilities (plus a new app!)

    July 25, 2014

  • About a month ago I unveiled a web app that calculates in-game win probabilities for NHL games, based on the metric I developed here.

    My next plan in the project was to turn to single game win probability metric into a statistic that gives us the probability...

  • An NHL game win probability app

    June 23, 2014

  • A few months back I created an in-game win probability statistic for NHL regular season and playoff games. The metric takes play-by-play information about the current score, powerplay situation, and home ice advantage and outputs the probability that the home or away team will win the game.

    In the...

  • Why we should be trying to do better than Corsi and Fenwick

    May 28, 2014

  • I think Corsi and Fenwick suck. I think this not because I’m an old-school, Brian Burke-ian stats hater. When it comes to “advanced” hockey stats, the formula shots + blocks + misses = corsi is lazy and oversimplistic. I think they suck because (at best) they’re weak proxies for what...

  • 2013-2014 Win Probabilities

    April 14, 2014

  • Below are the videos which show the win probability graphs for all 2013/2014 games for the teams in the Atlantic Division. To learn more about the win probability metric, check out my post here. The folder with the individual game graphs for every team is available here.


  • How much Smarter are College Basketball Experts than the Rest of Us?

    April 13, 2014

  • I wrote an article this week for Deadspin looking at how much better college basketball “experts” did at predicting the NCAA tournament this year than non-experts. I used the same 11 million brackets from ESPN.com’s Tournament Challenge as I used for the earlier article in the Wall...