• Odds of a Perfect NCAA Bracket this Year

    April 08, 2014

  • Check out my new, non-hockey, article in Monday’s Wall Street Journal. I find that, this year, there was a 1 in 1.47 quadrillion chance of picking a perfect NCAA March Madness bracket.

  • A Stats-Driven Power Ranking

    March 25, 2014

  • I used the win probability metric, which I described here, to calculate the average probability that each team wins each of their games. Then, for each team, I calculate a weighted-average (based on the logged temporal distance) of their win probabilities. In other words, the most recent game gets...

  • Win Probabilities Metric, 1.0

    March 24, 2014

  • In the past few years, in-game win probability metrics have become increasingly common in the NFL, MLB, and NBA. Similar analytics for the NHL, however, have lagged behind. In this post I’ll present version 1.0 of my NHL win probabilities metric.

    So far, the metric is based on home ice...

  • Win probabilities

    March 14, 2014

  • I started working today on a new project. I’m trying to build a dataset that allows somebody to get the probability of a team winning a game, given the current score, time remaining, PP situation, and other variables. So far I’ve built the score and time remaining into my model,...

  • How the Long-change OT could cut NHL shootouts by a third

    March 13, 2014

  • I just wrote my first article for Deadspin. A hot topic in the NHL community this week has been the possibility of tweaking the overtime rules to generate more goals and fewer shootouts. In the article, which is a followup to an article I wrote here a...