When March Madness Upsets Become More Likely Than Not

March 19, 2015

The men’s NCAA tournament starts this afternoon, and I’ve written an article about upsets for FiveThirtyEight. Imagine that you’re watching a game and the underdog is winning. At what point does the fact that they have the lead trump the fact that they’re the underdog? That’s the question I answer in the article.

If find that for most of the second half, the score trumps the seedings. That’s also the case earlier in the first half, but only for smaller potential upsets.